The Maduro government is trying to nibble away at the majority coalition to prevent Guaidó from getting the 84 votes he needs in the 167 seat legislature. The dominant opposition coalition is doing what it can to keep its majority in tact for the January 5, 2020 re-election of Juan Guaidó as National Assembly president.

Venezuela’s economic context is in transformation yet again with a process of liberalization and dollarization leading to a small recovery, alleviating some but leaving others even worse off.

The opposition’s current problems are indicators of a conjuncture in which they need to decide, on multiple fronts, whether they are a temporary parallel government that seeks to dislodge Maduro through maximum pressure in the short-term, despite the costs on the Venezuelan people and the inevitable scandals involved in working through improvised institutions; or whether they are going to seek sustainability and prioritize the well-being of the Venezuelan people by reaching some sort of modus vivendi with the Maduro government, despite the costs of tacitly recognizing it.

U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams suggested that there would be no change in U.S. strategy. “No, we don’t have a plan B. We have a plan A that we think will work.”

The highly-anticipated opposition march on Saturday, November 16 in Caracas was sizeable but significantly smaller and with less energy and optimism than those in the first quarter of the year. National Assembly President Juan Guaidó’s stated strategy is to increase...

Analysts suggested another interpretation that was not picked up by opposition leaders.  that the sequence of events showed the wisdom of going to elections even when they are unfair, given their potential to unleash a sequence of events that can lead to a transition.

Since 2017 the unpopular Maduro government has found a way to win elections without stealing them outright. By having an electoral council that openly demonstrates bias and generates rejection among the population, it can divide the opposition among those who promote abstention and those who mobilize participation.

U.S. efforts to pull the economic rug out from under Maduro are leading to a number of contradictions and complex situations.

As efforts to negotiate a political solution to Venezuela's crisis through the Norwegian mediation process remain on standby, the Maduro government continues promoting a parallel dialogue and raising the prospects of legislative elections in the next year. On October...