Yesterday World Politics Review published my piece “Facing a Shifting Latin America, Venezuela’s Maduro Doubles Down“ (clicking from here should get you around the paywall).
The main points are that the set of regional alliances put together by Chávez and Maduro are clearly fraying. However, President Nicolás Maduro’s response has been the same as his response to most every challenge in the past three years: stay the course.
The reestablishment of diplomatic relations between the US and Cuba presents another challenge to the Maduro Administration and they seem focused on trying to maintain their privileged relationship with the Castro government.
The Obama Administration has set aside the engagement we saw in 2015 through the figure of Thomas Shannon. For better or for worse, it could be obliged by events or by the US Congress to get more involved.