Election Analysis in the Media by Geoff Ramsey and David Smilde4 min read

In the wake of Venezuela’s presidential elections, our experts Geoff Ramsey and David Smilde have been busy speaking with the press on the implications for the country’s crisis. Below we compiled various articles containing their analysis.

Analysis by Geoff Ramsey in the media:

The Guardian
Venezuela: Maduro hails election win but world leaders threaten sanctions
“Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert from the Washington Office on Latin America, said new sanctions targeting Venezuela’s oil sector were very likely in the coming days or weeks. ‘That is obviously something that is extremely concerning because this is already a country that is in a deep economic crisis and we know that oil sanctions would have an impact on Venezuela’s people,’ he said.”

The Washington Post
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro wins reelection amid charges of irregularities
“That Maduro continues to rule ‘is a very real possibility that has to be taken seriously,’ said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, a think tank. ‘The Venezuelan government does see this as their special period, like Cuba in the 1990s, and they are thinking they can get through a couple of tough years and then seek better relations both regionally and internationally.’”

Financial Times
International community considers response as Maduro digs in
“Aside from oil, the US and the EU might re-visit their sanctions against individuals close to the Maduro regime. But such measures have only a limited impact and could prove counter-productive. ‘As these lists expand, and more people are added, more and more officials in power will lose their incentive to split from Maduro,’ Mr Ramsey argued. ‘Why risk supporting a transition when you could end up in a jail cell in Miami?’”

AFP
EEUU endurece sanciones a Venezuela sin golpear de lleno al sector petrolero
“‘Expandió las sanciones sobre la deuda venezolana de agosto de 2017, que solo se aplicaban a nueva deuda’, dijo Geoff Ramsey, experto sobre Venezuela del centro de investigación WOLA.”

El Espectador
El futuro de Venezuela después del triunfo de Nicolás Maduro
“‘A medida que el descontento popular crezca con la crisis, el Gobierno tendría que depender cada vez más de la represión,’ explica Geoff Ramsey, director asistente del programa de la Oficina en Washington para Asuntos Latinoamericanos (WOLA) en Venezuela. De acuerdo con el analista, la movilización popular y la disidencia interna en las filas militares y de las fuerzas de seguridad y el chavismo quedarán vulnerables ante el posible uso de la fuerza por parte del Gobierno.”

RNE Spanish Radio
Las mañanas de RNE – Geoff Ramsey: “El Gobierno de Maduro va a quedar más aislado internacionalmente”
Click the link above to listen to the radio segment.

Folha de São Paulo
A Venezuela descerá mais ao inferno?
“Ideia que tem apoio, por exemplo, do Wola (Washington Office on Latin America), bom centro de observação sobre América Latina: ‘Um tipo de transição pactuada é provavelmente o caminho mais realista para sair da crise venezuelana, porque o governo não cederá poder sem certas concessões’, escreve Geoff Ramsey, diretor-assistente do Programa Venezuela do WOLA.”

Analysis by David Smilde in the media:

BBC Mundo
Cómo Nicolás Maduro ha mostrado ser un político más astuto de lo que muchos pensaban en Venezuela
“‘Lo que ha hecho desde que asumió es quitar de su camino a todos los que lo adversan’, dice a BBC Mundo el analista estadounidense David Smilde, profesor de Sociología que ha vivido o trabajado en Venezuela desde 1992.”

El Espectador
El futuro de Venezuela después del triunfo de Nicolás Maduro
“Además, fuera de la Unasur y con sus relaciones deterioradas con varios países de la región, Caracas acentuaría su condición de Estado aislado, pero eso es algo que, de acuerdo con el analista David Smilde, profesor de sociología y miembro de la Oficina en Washington para Asuntos Latinoamericanos en Venezuela, le servirá a Maduro para creer que está defendiendo la Revolución a cualquier costo.”

Pre-election Analysis:

The New York Times
Critics Say He Can’t Beat a Dictator. This Venezuelan Thinks He Can.
“‘Is the vote fair? It’s clearly not fair,’ said David Smilde, a professor of sociology at Tulane University who studies Venezuela. ‘But sometimes, even in unfair conditions, it’s possible for the opposition to win.’

AFP
Sanctions to intervention: US options after ‘sham’ Venezuela vote
“‘If Maduro wins, as he is expected to, the US government will certainly tighten the screws even more,’ said David Smilde of the WOLA center for human rights in Washington.”